Gold price today recovers above $4,000 as softening dollar counters Fed rate fears
The gold price today bounced back above the $4,000 threshold during early Asian trading, halting a two-day decline to three-month lows. A softer US dollar and slipping Treasury yields provided relief ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision.
⚡ Key numbers:
- $4,025 – spot gold price per ounce in early Monday trading
- 90.6% – probability of Fed holding interest rates unchanged this week
- 79.4% – market-implied odds of a US interest rate hike in December
- 101.65 – US Dollar Index (DXY) level following early declines
Bullion rebounds from multi-month low
Spot gold advanced to $4,025 per ounce on Monday morning, climbing away from session lows near $3,995 recorded earlier. The move broke a consecutive two-day drop that had pushed the yellow metal toward levels last seen in July, as noted by FXStreet.
Declining yields on US Treasuries capped recent momentum in the greenback, prompting dip-buyers to step into the bullion market. The move provides a brief respite following previous sessions where rising oil yields fueled Fed fears.
Energy rally keeps rate expectations elevated
Upside potential for the metal remains constrained by elevated crude oil prices, which surged to their highest levels since mid-September after attacks in Saudi Arabia and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Costlier energy reinforces sticky inflation concerns.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assign a 90.6% probability to the Fed pausing rate changes on Wednesday. However, expectations for further policy tightening in December remain high at 79.4%, limiting aggressive bets on non-yielding assets.
“Gold is being weighed down by concerns around oil prices, rates and the Fed outlook”
— Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities (via FXStreet)
Key technical indicators and macroeconomic data
Technical gauges highlight ongoing friction, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 34.13, just above oversold levels. FXStreet technical analysis identifies immediate resistance at $4,015 along the lower Bollinger band, followed by the 20-day SMA at $4,130.
Market participants are also preparing for crucial US macroeconomic reports scheduled later this week. On Thursday, the US will release preliminary third-quarter GDP figures and the PCE price index. Both follow Wednesday's FOMC decision.
What to watch next
- Outcome of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday
- Release of the Advance US Q3 GDP report and core PCE price index on Thursday
- Crude oil supply disruptions following recent Middle East incidents
Frequently asked questions
What drove the gold price today back over $4,000?
Lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar Index prompted dip buyers to enter after prices tested three-month lows near $3,995.
What are the key resistance levels for gold now?
Initial resistance stands near $4,015 at the lower Bollinger band, with the 20-day SMA located at $4,130.
What does the market expect from the Federal Reserve?
Markets price a 90.6% likelihood of no change this week, but assign a 79.4% probability to a rate hike in December.
Sources: FXStreet, Comparic, Yahoo Finance.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 06:19 may vary by source. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.
This article contains AI-generated content.
