Poland interest rate decision keeps benchmark at 3.75% as zloty strengthens on inflation forecast
The National Bank of Poland maintained its benchmark rate at 3.75% in its latest Poland interest rate decision. However, the central bank raised its medium-term inflation outlook, projecting consumer price growth between 3.1% and 5.3% in 2027. The Polish zloty strengthened against the euro following the announcement.
⚡ Key numbers:
- 3.75% — NBP benchmark reference rate held unchanged in November
- 3.1%–5.3% — projected Polish CPI inflation range for 2027 in the NBP forecast
- 4.3916 PLN — official EUR/PLN fixing set by the NBP, down 0.22%
- 3.92% — current 3-month WIBOR rate
NBP maintains interest rates across all facilities
The Monetary Policy Council concluded its November meeting by keeping all borrowing costs steady. The benchmark reference rate remains at 3.75%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, and the lombard rate at 4.25%. The outcome was in line with broad market consensus, which anticipated no rate change.
Polish policymakers have changed interest rates only once in 2026, delivering a 25-basis-point cut at the start of March. This cautious stance comes while the ECB keeps interest rates unchanged in Frankfurt, providing an external backdrop of steady European rates.
Updated inflation projections point to persistent price pressures
The central bank released its updated economic projections prepared under the assumption of unchanged interest rates. Annual headline CPI inflation is projected with a 50% probability to land between 3.1% and 3.2% in 2026, between 3.1% and 5.3% in 2027, and between 1.4% and 4.4% in 2028.
The revision marks an increase compared to the July forecast, which projected 2027 inflation between 1.5% and 4.0%. Current inflation stands at 3.5%, resting near the upper boundary of the NBP target band of 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point, while GDP growth moderated in the third quarter from 4.1% year-on-year in the second quarter.
Currency market and rate expectations adjust
The Polish zloty advanced against the euro after the announcement. The official EUR/PLN fixing published by the NBP fell to 4.3916 from 4.4014 on Wednesday, with spot market trading moving towards 4.3904. USD/PLN hovered at 3.9101 on the official fixing table.
Market participants are pricing in potential rate increases next year. Forward Rate Agreement contracts indicate that the 3-month WIBOR rate could rise from its current level of 3.92% to 4.18% over a nine-month horizon.
What to watch next
- NBP Governor press conference discussing the November rate decision
- Upcoming Monetary Policy Council policy meeting on 1–2 December 2026
- S&P sovereign rating review for Poland
Frequently asked questions
What was the outcome of the Poland interest rate decision in November 2026?
The National Bank of Poland held its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 3.75%, leaving the lombard rate at 4.25% and deposit rate at 3.25%.
What are the NBP inflation projections for 2027?
The central bank projects headline CPI inflation to land within a range of 3.1% to 5.3% in 2027 with a 50% probability.
How did EUR/PLN react to the NBP announcement?
The Polish zloty gained ground against the euro, with the official NBP fixing dropping to 4.3916 PLN and spot trading easing toward 4.39 PLN.
Sources: Comparic, RMF24, Business Insider Polska, Interia Biznes, Bankier.pl, NBP, Yahoo Finance.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 13:24 may vary by source. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.
This article contains AI-generated content.
