Polish zloty forecast darkens as energy shock and dovish CEE banks lift EUR/PLN
Central and Eastern European currencies kicked off November under heightened pressure as surging energy prices and a resilient US dollar battered regional sentiment. The latest Polish zloty forecast points to prolonged softness after EUR/PLN broke above 4.41 following a sharper-than-expected slowdown in domestic inflation.
⚡ Key numbers:
- 4.4185 – NBP official fixing rate for EUR/PLN on 2 November 2026
- 3.9389 – official USD/PLN exchange rate published by NBP
- 3.5% YoY – preliminary Polish CPI inflation for October against 3.7% consensus
- 4.00% – projected Czech National Bank policy rate following an expected 25 bps hike
Energy headwinds and central bank divergence
Trading at the start of November witnessed a sharp resurgence in risk-off sentiment across emerging markets. According to ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky, the combination of rising energy costs and a stronger dollar globally, alongside generally dovish central banks within the CEE region, will continue to exert downward pressure on regional exchange rates.
Monetary policy paths across the region are diverging substantially. While the Czech National Bank is expected to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Thursday, the National Bank of Poland is widely seen pausing at 3.75%, leaving regional foreign exchange vulnerable to broader macro disruptions.
Cooling inflation removes pressure on the NBP
Domestic economic indicators have further reduced the likelihood of monetary tightening in Warsaw. Preliminary consumer price data revealed that headline inflation dropped to 3.5% year-on-year in October from 4.1% in September, coming in below the median economist consensus of 3.7%.
Seasonally adjusted prices dipped 0.3% month-on-month, solidifying expectations that the Monetary Policy Council will keep borrowing costs steady at 3.75% during Wednesday's meeting. Interest rate futures currently imply that the baseline scenario remains no change in rates through the end of 2026, with an implied hike probability hovering near 30%.
“Nevertheless, the zloty is weakening this morning, alongside other regional currencies. EUR/PLN broke through the technical level of 4.41 and stabilized around 4.4150. The zloty weakened despite EUR/USD rising towards 1.1190. Without further weakening of the dollar, the potential for a further move may be limited.”
— Bank Millennium economists (via Forsal)
Regional currencies retreat across the board
The shift in sentiment triggered an immediate climb in major pairs, with EUR/PLN breaking through technical resistance at 4.41 to trade near 4.4150. Official daily fixing data from the NBP showed the euro climbing to 4.4185 PLN and the US dollar rising to 3.9389 PLN.
Even as EUR/USD consolidated near 1.1213, local assets failed to benefit, reflecting persistent geopolitical unease and pre-election positioning ahead of US midterms. Investors monitoring the Polish zloty rate noted corresponding gains in CHF/PLN toward 4.80 and GBP/PLN near 5.2869.
What to watch next
- National Bank of Poland interest rate decision and revised macroeconomic projections on Wednesday
- US midterm election outcomes and potential shifts in Treasury yields and fiscal policy
- Czech National Bank rate verdict on Thursday with a projected 25 bp hike
Frequently asked questions
What is driving the current Polish zloty forecast lower?
The Polish zloty is weighed down by higher energy commodity prices, broad US dollar strength, and a decline in Polish CPI to 3.5%, which reduces any likelihood of near-term rate hikes by the NBP.
Where did the NBP set the official exchange rates on 2 November 2026?
The National Bank of Poland set the official fixing rates at 4.4185 for EUR/PLN, 3.9389 for USD/PLN, 4.7983 for CHF/PLN, and 5.2869 for GBP/PLN.
What are analysts projecting for CEE central banks this week?
ING anticipates the National Bank of Poland will keep its reference rate at 3.75%, while the Czech National Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%.
Sources: Interia Biznes, FXStreet, Comparic, Forsal, Bankier.pl, NBP, Yahoo Finance.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 13:43 may vary by source. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.
This article contains AI-generated content.
